When the College Football Playoff rankings drop on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, at 8:00 p.m. EST, the Alabama Crimson Tide are poised to land at No. 4 — even after losing their season opener. That’s the consensus across Sports Illustrated, RotoBaller, and Chat Sports, despite the fact that Alabama fell 31-17 to Florida State Seminoles in Week 1. Funny thing is, Florida State’s now 4-4. And that loss? It’s fading fast.
Why Alabama Still Rises After a Loss
The CFP selection committee has changed the rules for 2025. No longer do conference champions get automatic seeding perks. Instead, the top four teams — regardless of conference — get first-round byes. That’s huge. It means a team like Alabama, which didn’t win its opener but has steamrolled through the SEC since, can still climb higher than undefeated outsiders.
Since that ugly loss to Florida State, Alabama has won six straight, crushing Georgia Bulldogs 35-10, then dominating Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. Their average margin of victory? 28.5 points per game. Only Indiana Hoosiers (31 ppg) is higher. And here’s the twist: Indiana has no ranked non-conference wins. Meanwhile, Alabama beat Georgia — a top-five team — and that win echoes through committee deliberations like a drumbeat.
The SEC Advantage
Let’s be real: the committee has a soft spot for the SEC. Always has. Sports Illustrated put it bluntly: “They like one-loss SEC teams more than undefeated teams in other conferences.” That’s not bias — it’s institutional memory. Teams like BYU Cougars (8-0) and Indiana (9-0) are statistically dominant, but they’re playing in weaker schedules. Alabama? They’ve been tested. Every week. In the trenches.
Chat Sports analyst Harrison Graham summed it up in a November 3 YouTube breakdown: “The selectors don’t just look at wins. They look at who you beat, and how you beat them.” And Alabama’s win over Georgia? That’s the kind of circular logic the committee loves. Beat the team that beat the team that beat you — it creates a chain of credibility. Georgia is projected at No. 5. Why? Because Alabama beat them. Simple as that.
Who’s Ahead of Alabama?
The projected top four? Indiana Hoosiers (9-0), Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0), Texas A&M Aggies (8-0), then Alabama (7-1). That’s the order repeated by every major projection. Indiana’s point differential is better. Ohio State’s resume is clean. Texas A&M has a marquee win over LSU. But Alabama? They’ve got momentum, depth, and a schedule that looks like a gauntlet.
And here’s the quiet advantage: the committee’s chair rotation. RotoBaller noted that BYU — despite being undefeated — might be held back because they “lost the committee chair spot” this cycle. Translation: institutional favoritism isn’t always about wins. It’s about who’s in the room, and who they’ve seen play. Alabama’s had the spotlight all season. The committee’s seen them. They know what they’re getting.
What’s Next? The Road to the Playoff
If the rankings hold, Alabama would host the winner of Memphis (#12) vs. Georgia (#5) in the first round. That’s a massive home-field advantage. And if Alabama wins out — they’re projected to go 9-1 by mid-November — RotoBaller says they could jump to No. 3. That’s not a fluke. That’s momentum.
The twist? The committee doesn’t just rank teams. They rank narratives. Alabama’s story isn’t perfect. It’s messy. They lost. But they didn’t break. They didn’t panic. They went out and dominated the most brutal conference in college football. And that’s exactly the kind of resilience the committee rewards.
Why This Matters Beyond Tuscaloosa
This isn’t just about Alabama. It’s about what the new CFP format says about power in college football. The SEC isn’t just a conference anymore — it’s a gravitational force. Teams from the American Athletic, Mountain West, or even the Big Ten are now playing for scraps while the SEC eats first. And if a one-loss team can jump over undefeated squads? That’s a message to every program outside the Power Five: the bar just got higher.
For fans outside Alabama, this is a reminder: dominance isn’t just about wins. It’s about context. It’s about who you beat, when you beat them, and how you respond when the world expects you to crumble. Alabama didn’t crumble. They redefined themselves. And the committee noticed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Alabama ranked ahead of undefeated teams like BYU and Indiana?
Despite being undefeated, BYU and Indiana lack high-quality wins against ranked opponents. Alabama’s 35-10 victory over Georgia — a top-five team — gives them a quality win that committee members value more than undefeated records in weaker conferences. The CFP selection committee has a documented preference for SEC teams with strong schedules, even with one loss.
How does the new CFP format change Alabama’s chances?
The 2025 format guarantees first-round byes to the top four teams regardless of conference championship results. This means Alabama doesn’t need to win the SEC title to secure a home game. Their 7-1 record, dominant SEC wins, and strength of schedule make them a prime candidate for a top-four seed — even without a conference crown.
What role does Alabama’s win over Georgia play in their ranking?
That 35-10 win is Alabama’s anchor. Georgia is projected at No. 5, meaning Alabama’s victory creates a direct hierarchy that the committee consistently honors. In CFP rankings, head-to-head results and quality wins override pure win-loss records. Alabama’s win over Georgia is their strongest card — and it’s why they’re ranked higher than other one-loss teams.
Could Alabama rise to No. 3 before the playoffs?
Yes. RotoBaller projects Alabama at No. 3 with a 9-1 record by mid-November if they win their remaining SEC games. Their strength of schedule and consistent performance give them upward momentum. A loss by Texas A&M or Ohio State could push them even higher — especially if they dominate their remaining opponents.
Why is Florida State’s early win over Alabama now considered irrelevant?
Florida State’s collapse to 4-4 has rendered their Week 1 win meaningless in the eyes of the committee. The CFP system weights late-season performance and team trajectory far more than early results. Alabama’s dominance since Week 1 — including a win over Georgia — completely overshadows what was once a shocking upset.
What’s Alabama’s path to the national title?
Alabama needs to win out, ideally by convincing margins, and hope one of the top three teams — Indiana, Ohio State, or Texas A&M — stumbles. A win over Georgia in the first round would boost their resume further. If they reach the semifinals, their physicality and experience in high-stakes games make them one of the most dangerous teams left standing.